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Internet trends
"The next 10 years will be the golden age of the Internet of sight", "Any technological innovation requires a 10-year maturity period" to extend the creation and completion.
China’s Internet has gone through 20 springs and autumns. In these 20 years, China has developed from a state of being poor and white to the world’s largest Internet market, creating the Big Three of BAT, and also creating a group of people from commoners to richest men. Inspirational legend.
Ma Huateng once mentioned that almost every 20 years, the evolution of the terminal will produce a major change in the entire information industry and even the entire economic industry. Looking back, the Internet has experienced the PC and mobile era. Then, what will be the information terminal of the next generation Internet?
Three 10 years of the Internet.

In January 1996, the China Public Computer Internet (CHINANET) national backbone network was completed and officially opened, and the nationwide public computer Internet network began to provide services.
So far, China has entered the era of primary Internet access. Let us tentatively set this time as a milestone in the development of China's Internet. Using 10 years as the unit of calculation, we will divide the development of the Internet into three stages:
The age of internet development
1. The first 10 years, the PC Internet era

1) The core thinking of the PC Internet: traffic comes first!
Merchants based on traffic thinking are indisputable, seize the upstream of the industry chain and control pricing power:
◆ The upstream of the website is navigation. Go to the Internet cafe and open the browser is hao123
◆ The upstream search of navigation, formerly relying on Mongolia for homework, now relying on Baidu
◆ The upstream of search is the browser. Since 1998, IE has been under dictatorship for 10 years, and its share in 2002 was as high as 96%.
◆ The upstream of the browser is the input method, users can not anti-virus, but it is impossible not to type. The installed capacity is 100%.
◆ The upstream of the input method is anti-virus software. How many software giants were killed by 360 in the past?
◆ The upstream of antivirus software is the operating system. Based on the almost only Windows platform in the world, the Internet was an emerging industry at the time. In the early stage of rapid development, many projects tasted the sweetness of traffic dividends and even became the first camp. Traffic is king, as long as there is traffic, you don't need to be melancholy to make money.
2) In the PC Internet era, giants live in harmony
Chip manufacturers Intel and IBM, HP, Lenovo and other PC manufacturers are responsible for the hardware system, Microsoft is responsible for the OS, the operator provides the network, and Google Internet companies such as Tencent and Tencent are responsible for the provision of related Internet applications. Everyone fulfilled their responsibilities and made their fortunes, and got along quite harmoniously.

2. The second 10 years, the era of mobile Internet

User thinking in the era of mobile Internet?
◆ Fragmentation: The user consumption scene has undergone tremendous changes. The place where we contact it is becoming more and more unstable, and the time is shorter and shorter, which intensifies the three fragmentation trends of users: fragmentation of shopping locations, shopping Fragmentation of time, fragmentation of shopping needs.
◆ Decentralization: The differentiation of information is no longer directly delivered to the audience through mainstream media. With the rise of social networks and media, each user is the center of information for splitting and spreading; flat, de-intermediate new The channel form allows users to be satisfied based on "distribution on demand".
◆ Scenario-oriented: The user’s first contact point is no longer through the PC, using the mouse and keyboard to enter the network to complete the consumption, plus the ubiquitous QR code of the merchant, the image search and voice input of the e-commerce, and it is more convenient Connect with consumers through "specific life scenarios".

Three, the third 10 years, look at the Internet era?

The more successful the PC era, the heavier the burden, the more we have to give up.
In the first 10 years of the Internet, the fruits of traffic were harvested, but they couldn’t be satisfied until the next 10 years. Some Internet cannons have disappeared in 1960, and the chances of latecomers to take advantage of this kind of bonus are very slim. Especially in the investment field, the story of being a traffic circle user first and then thinking about the profit model can no longer impress investors.
In the mobile Internet era, giants race their races and invest in addiction to Internet entrepreneurship. The most feared sentence is: What should you do if BAT copies you?
The most thoughtful thing is: When will BAT be killed?
Some media have said that "After the mobile Internet era, only BAT and the rich are left."
What does it mean--BAT has become the largest investment institution outside of VC, and there have been four mergers and acquisitions; companies with self-hematopoietic capabilities and ideal cash flow will have the last laugh.
1) Is VR the next tuyere or the next pit hole?
Data prediction can more clearly represent the industry’s attitude towards VR. According to the latest report from Goldman Sachs, VR and AR will become the next-generation computing platform after computers and smartphones, and the existing electronics market will be reshaped. In addition, Goldman Sachs also predicts the next ten years, by 2025, the annual sales of VR and AR software and hardware will reach 80 billion US dollars. It also said that if technology solves the battery and mobile problems, VR annual revenue can even reach 182 billion US dollars.
2) VR scene experience thinking and application
VR scene design has begun to take shape in games, film and television, performing arts, live broadcast, social networking, education, tourism, trading, The nine major training sections can also be simply divided into three content sections: entertainment, life services, and business services.
The combination of virtual reality and entertainment will bring people a better experience and create more happiness. Virtual reality is integrated into the business process of traditional industries to realize the upgrade of management process experience, and to a certain extent realize lean production.
In the penetration of medical, education, industry and other fields, VR technology has also been placed in high hopes, which enhances the experience of knowledge resource application, and the learning method is simpler and more convenient. Simulated surgery and virtual reality teaching allow students to see In "Qinyuanchun. Snow", by touching the Great Wall, I can understand why "It is not a good man to reach the Great Wall".
Who will be perished in the third-generation line-of-sight Internet
In each era of the Internet, the forms and methods of information input and output are different, and the form of products is based on the changes of the scene to promote the different evolution of technology, and finally a new business model is born.
1) PC Internet era: To solve the problem of "information scarcity and information asymmetry", the following industries were fatally hit:
◆ Paper media: newspapers, magazines, radio, television, etc. (Slowly to be marginalized)
◆ Old information output derivative industry: CD rental (it has long disappeared from the streets)
◆ Paper industry, printing industry, publishing, advertising, etc. (need urgent transformation)
◆ Entity Stores: physical bookstore retail, offline clothing stores (always the opposite of e-commerce sites, but today new retail has emerged)
2) In the era of mobile Internet, solve the problem of "excessive information and banned hands" , The following industries were hurt the most:
◆ Communication industry: There are fewer phone calls, text messages are replaced by WeChat, SP has no way to survive (someone hates WeChat)
◆ Hardware: smartphone Alternative feature phones (Apple, Nokia)
◆ The failure of mainstream media, the victory of social media (Trump’s victory tells everything)
3) In the era of the Internet, who will be replaced by technology? :
◆ Use brain waves to communicate, use glasses and helmets as information input tools (free your hands, will a certain goose be braised or make soup?)
◆ Apple is like Nokia, Facebook is like Yahoo, movie theaters It's like a video room.
◆ The mouse and keyboard will be sent to the History Museum.
4) Sort out the scenes that have appeared in each era:
◆ PC Internet era: In the subway, there is a laptop computer to work or obtain information.
◆ Mobile Internet era: The subway, the street, and the dating places are all looking down and swiping their phones.
◆ Sight in the Internet era: wearing glasses and helmets dancing in the street.
Finally, the mobile Internet cured the lower body "incompetence" of the otaku, and the sight of the Internet cured the cervical spondylosis of the bowed family for many years (the Internet era of glasses-the ability to use hands and brains is strong, but remember to protect your eyesight).
Where will the next wave of giants be?
The following industries will produce new giants. I hope you will either possess Peter Till or believe in yourself and open your mind:
◆ Software: Who will replace hao123? What will the search model and operating system look like in the future?
◆ Hardware: How do AR and VR game controllers, surgical simulation tools, and various input and output devices change?
◆ Content: From the perspective of hardware support, corner book production, interactive methods, etc., will the content production model evolve into?
◆ Social: Not limited to WeChat text and voice, what are the new ways of communication? Will it be brain electricity?
◆ Platform: Will a brand new model and a brand new ecology create a brand new platform?
Some people mentioned that VR and AR still have many problems such as dizziness, lack of content, high cost, and immature technology. If we calculate an industry maturity period in 10 years, the Internet of glasses has just begun. In time, these problems will be solved.
Products should be moderately ahead of the industry trend. The replacement of products is a scene-experienced substitution. The technology needs a complete process from productization to commercialization. Therefore, technology must be far away and commercialization must be near.

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